The confusing Popperian ‘Oedipus effect’ on Social Sciences predictions

Abstract

Popper argues that it is impossible to make accurate and detailed predictions in the Social Sciences and calls the ‘Oedipus effect’ the idea that a prediction can influence the predicted event, both in the sense of favoring and preventing it from happening. However, after reviewing the problems of predictions in the Social Sciences and defining and distinguishing self-fulfilling prophecies and self-defeating predictions, we note important discrepancies between Popper’s approach and the Oedipus myth. Specifically, we find that the Oedipus story, at best, partially corresponds to self-fulfilling prophecies and is opposed to self-defeating ones. More precisely, we note that the oracle generated a defeating reaction that, however, led to its fulfillment. Contrary to Popper's argument, the prophecies of the Oedipus story are accurate. To understand this lack of association between the phenomenon described and the term Popper assigns it, we explored the reasons that guided his choice, finding that he preferred to make a specific allusion to the practices of psychoanalysts at the expense of the precision of the term.